Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. Found an error on our site? Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. In 2020, a single. We believe this was a mistake. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. Have you looked at the results of these counties? It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. "They followed through the whole four years. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. 7. (Sorry, not sorry.) But both are worth watching. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. But it's still indicative of widespread support. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". 12. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. Their hopes are real. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. hide caption. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. University of New Hampshire . This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. The divisions were everywhere. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. 2. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). 2023 BBC. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Do you know this baby? 3. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Seriously. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. Website Updates Paused A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. 11. All rights reserved. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. So, where are the bellwether counties? University of Denver, 2. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Not anymore. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. 6. That's 14 in a row. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. 03:30. It is easy to gloss over this. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Click here, for more. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). (subject to censorship). A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. 5. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Free and open-source. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. It's happened before. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. First, what are bellwether counties? Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state.
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